Victoria's state seats since 2014: which never change, and which were decided by a few hundred votes
Victoria votes on 28 November. Of its 88 state districts, 65 were won by the same side at the 2014, 2018 and 2022 elections and 14 changed hands. In 2022, Northcote was decided by 184 votes and Bass by 202. In Melbourne, 52.9% of residents live in a district Labor won all three times; in the rest of Victoria, 41.8% live in one the Coalition won all three times.
Victoria elects its Legislative Assembly on 28 November 2026. It will vote in the same 88 districts as in 2022: the boundaries were last redrawn in 2021, and the next redraw comes after this election. We looked at who won each district at the last three elections, in 2014, 2018 and 2022.
79 of the 88 districts existed under the same name at all three elections. 65 were won by the same side every time: 41 by Labor, 22 by the Coalition and 2 by the Greens (Melbourne and Prahran). 14 changed hands at least once. The other 9 were created or renamed in the 2021 redraw.
We matched every suburb to its district and counted residents at the 2021 Census:
| Residents living in a district... | Melbourne | Rest of Victoria |
|---|---|---|
| Labor won at all three elections | 52.9% | 30.3% |
| the Coalition won at all three | 16.3% | 41.8% |
| the Greens won at all three | 3.7% | none |
| that changed hands | 12.6% | 23.6% |
| created or renamed in 2021 | 14.5% | 4.4% |
Decided by a few hundred votes
These were the closest districts in 2022 among those where the count went to the last two candidates:
| District | Won by | Against | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Northcote | Labor | Greens | 184 votes |
| Bass | Labor | Liberal | 202 votes |
| Pakenham | Labor | Liberal | 307 votes |
| Mornington | Liberal | Independent | 590 votes |
| Benambra | Liberal | Independent | 777 votes |
| Mildura | Nationals | Independent | 900 votes |
| Hastings | Labor | Liberal | 1,116 votes |
| Croydon | Liberal | Labor | 1,253 votes |
Three of the eight were contests between a Coalition candidate and an independent, and Northcote was between Labor and the Greens.
The 14 that changed hands
- Coalition in 2014, Labor since 2018: Bass, Bayswater, Box Hill, Ringwood and South Barwon.
- Coalition in 2014 and 2018, Labor in 2022: Hastings and Ripon.
- Labor in 2018 only: Hawthorn and Nepean, Coalition in 2014 and 2022.
- Independents: Mildura and Morwell elected independents in 2018 and Coalition members in 2014 and 2022. Shepparton elected an independent in 2014 and 2018 and the Nationals in 2022.
- To the Greens: Brunswick from Labor in 2018, and Richmond from Labor in 2022.
Since 2022
Five by-elections have been held since the 2022 election. Prahran changed hands: the Greens had won it at all three general elections, and the Liberals won the by-election in February 2025. Warrandyte (2023) and Nepean (2026) stayed Liberal, and Mulgrave (2023) and Werribee (2025) stayed Labor.
The largest two-party margins
The two-party-preferred vote compares Labor with the Coalition in every district, whoever won. Labor's two-party vote in Murray Plains, in northern Victoria, was never above 27.6% at any of the three elections, and in Lowan, in the west, never above 28.7%.
In Northcote and Brunswick, Labor's two-party vote against the Coalition never fell below 79%. That count says little about who wins there: the contest is between Labor and the Greens, and Northcote was the closest count in the state in 2022.
How we counted
- Results are the Victorian Electoral Commission's elected members, counts after preferences and two-party-preferred votes for each district at the 2014, 2018 and 2022 state elections, and its by-election results since.
- A district is followed by its name. The 2021 redraw moved boundaries, so a district of the same name did not cover exactly the same ground in 2014 and 2018.
- The Liberals and the Nationals are counted together as the Coalition. Only general elections are counted as changes; Northcote's 2017 by-election, won by the Greens, is not.
- Narracan's 2022 poll was replaced by a supplementary election in January 2023 after a candidate died; its result is counted as 2022.
- Margins are the difference in votes between the last two candidates after preferences. Where a candidate passed half the vote before the count reached the last two, the count stopped there and there is no final two-candidate margin; those districts are not in the table.
- Residents are 2021 Census counts for each suburb, matched to the district its suburb falls in today. "Melbourne" is the ABS's Melbourne urban area; everything else is "rest of Victoria".
Every Victorian suburb page on SuburbScan now shows its state district, its member and the last three results.