Australians did move to the regions. The capitals grew faster anyway.
In the five years to June 2025, Australia's capital cities grew 8.5% and the rest of the country 6.1%. Over four years the capitals lost a net 133,642 residents to the rest of Australia, but gained 1.26 million from overseas, about nine for every one they lost. Warragul and Drouin grew fastest of 27 regional cities; Mount Isa shrank.
The move to the regions was real. In each of the four years to June 2025, more people moved out of the capital cities to the rest of Australia than moved the other way: 133,642 more in total. But the capitals grew faster all the same. Between June 2020 and June 2025 the eight capital cities grew 8.5% and the rest of Australia 6.1%, on the Australian Bureau of Statistics' latest population estimates.
The rest of Australia outgrew the capitals in only one year since 2016: the year to June 2021, when the borders were closed and the capitals shrank.
| Year to June | Capital cities | Rest of Australia |
|---|---|---|
| 2019 | +1.7% | +1.2% |
| 2020 | +1.3% | +1.2% |
| 2021 | −0.3% | +1.0% |
| 2022 | +1.3% | +1.2% |
| 2023 | +3.1% | +1.4% |
| 2024 | +2.4% | +1.3% |
| 2025 | +1.8% | +1.1% |
Where the growth came from
A city grows from births over deaths, from people moving in from elsewhere in Australia, and from migrants arriving from overseas. Over the four years from July 2021 to June 2025:
| Births minus deaths | Net moves within Australia | Net overseas migration | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Capital cities | +374,272 | −133,642 | +1,260,518 |
| Rest of Australia | +73,743 | +133,642 | +219,709 |
Every person the capitals lost to the regions was replaced roughly nine times over by migration from overseas. Sydney lost 155,235 more people to the rest of Australia than it gained from it, the most of any city, and gained 412,198 from overseas. Melbourne lost 65,168 and gained 409,837.
Brisbane and Perth gained on both counts. Brisbane drew 61,850 more people from the rest of Australia than it lost to it, and Perth 44,377, which is why they grew faster than any other capital: 11.3% and 13.4% over the five years.
The regional cities
The 27 regional cities SuburbScan covers, every ABS Significant Urban Area outside the capitals with at least 20 suburbs, grew 7.5% together: less than the capitals, more than the rest of regional Australia.
| Population, June 2025 | Growth 2020–2025 | Growth 2015–2020 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Warragul–Drouin (VIC) | 47,510 | +15.0% | +20.6% |
| Busselton (WA) | 46,023 | +12.4% | +11.1% |
| Sunshine Coast (QLD) | 424,741 | +12.0% | +13.6% |
| Geelong (VIC) | 314,381 | +10.8% | +14.8% |
| Alice Springs (NT) | 30,875 | +10.2% | +4.4% |
| Ballarat (VIC) | 120,939 | +10.1% | +10.2% |
| Gold Coast–Tweed Heads (QLD/NSW) | 761,634 | +9.6% | +10.7% |
| Camden Haven (NSW) | 19,995 | +9.6% | +8.9% |
| Toowoomba (QLD) | 153,781 | +8.0% | +7.4% |
| Bundaberg (QLD) | 79,283 | +7.7% | +5.0% |
| … | |||
| Central Coast (NSW) | 354,189 | +2.9% | +4.4% |
| Burnie–Somerset (TAS) | 28,643 | +1.8% | +3.5% |
| Wagga Wagga (NSW) | 58,117 | +1.5% | +3.4% |
| Launceston (TAS) | 92,993 | +1.1% | +7.5% |
| Mount Isa (QLD) | 18,162 | −3.9% | −6.5% |
The fastest-growing regional cities are mostly commuter towns and coastal cities. Warragul and Drouin sit on the train line to Melbourne. In the 2021 Census, one in five residents of Warragul and Drouin had lived in a capital city five years earlier; we covered that in where Australians who left the capitals went. Busselton and the Sunshine Coast are coastal; Geelong and Ballarat are about an hour from Melbourne.
The largest number of new residents went to the biggest regional cities: the Gold Coast–Tweed Heads gained 67,008 people in five years, the Sunshine Coast 45,600 and Newcastle–Maitland 38,116.
Tasmania stalled
Tasmania's two cities slowed the most. Hobart grew 3.1% in the five years to 2025, after 10.5% in the five before. Launceston grew 1.1%, after 7.5%. In the year to June 2025, Hobart added 346 people and Launceston lost 55. Mount Isa is the only one of the 27 regional cities that shrank, as it did in the five years before.
How we measured
- Population is the ABS estimated resident population at 30 June each year (Regional population, 2024–25, released March 2026), by Significant Urban Area. A capital city here is its urban area; Canberra includes Queanbeyan, as the ABS defines it. The rest of Australia is everything else, cities, towns and rural areas.
- Births, deaths and migration come from the same release, for the ABS Greater Capital City Statistical Areas and the rest of each state, which are drawn slightly wider than the urban areas. The ACT counts as a capital.
- The 27 regional cities are SuburbScan's list: every Significant Urban Area outside the capitals with at least 20 suburbs.
Every state page on SuburbScan now lists its fastest-growing regional cities, and every city page shows its own growth.