Patterson Lakes vs Carrum Downs

Carrum Downs is the younger of the two, with a median age of 36 against 46 in Patterson Lakes. In both, most households own their home and most homes are detached houses. In Patterson Lakes, about half of households are couple families. Houses cost more in Patterson Lakes: a median of $1.34 million, against $786,000 in Carrum Downs, and rent is higher there too. On these figures, Patterson Lakes tends to suit older residents, while Carrum Downs suits buyers on a tighter budget.

Which one suits you?

There is no overall winner — the suburb that suits a family with school-age kids is routinely the wrong one for someone commuting into the city. So each of these answers its own question, against a checklist you can see, using the same figures in the tables below.

Families with school-age kids

Carrum Downs

ahead on 4 of the 6 things we measure here

  • has more childcare (20 vs 3)
  • has more schools inside the suburb (5 vs 1)
  • has more parks and reserves (25 vs 8)
  • But Patterson Lakes carries lower crime risk (60/100 vs 79/100)

Weighs schools, house stock, crime, parks, childcare, and who already lives there.

First-home buyers

Carrum Downs

ahead on 2 of the 3 things we measure here

  • has cheaper houses ($786,000 vs $1,338,000)
  • has cheaper units ($605,000 vs $675,000)

Weighs house prices, unit prices, and mortgage stress.

Renters

Carrum Downs

ahead on 2 of the 3 things we measure here

  • has a bigger rental market to choose from (28% vs 16%)
  • has cheaper rent ($370/wk vs $430/wk)

Weighs rent, rental stress, and how much is for rent.

Commuting to the city

Patterson Lakes

ahead on the one thing that separates them

  • is more walkable (74/100 vs 64/100)

Weighs distance, drive time, rail access, and walkability.

Downsizers and retirees

Patterson Lakes

ahead on 4 of the 5 things we measure here

  • has more units and townhouses to downsize into (40% vs 21%)
  • has more residents already 65 and over (22% vs 13%)
  • carries lower crime risk (60/100 vs 79/100)
  • But Carrum Downs has more GPs (10 vs 2)

Weighs smaller dwellings, who already lives there, GPs, walkability, and crime.

Investors

Too close to call

Nothing among the 3 things we measure here separates them by enough to be worth acting on.

Weighs house yield, unit yield, and population growth.

Where they sit

Patterson Lakes and Carrum Downs drawn to the same scale. Both outlines are shown together, so the map answers whether they share a border and how their areas compare.

Patterson Lakes Carrum Downs
Hides rows where both suburbs match

Bars start at zero. Scores, risks and rankings are drawn against their full 0–100 range; other rows are drawn in proportion to the larger of the two.

Side by side, out of 100

Risks are inverted — shown as safety and low exposure — so a longer bar always means better.

Patterson Lakes Carrum Downs
Walkability 74 / 64
Patterson Lakes — Walkability: 74/100 Carrum Downs — Walkability: 64/100
Safety 40 / 21
Patterson Lakes — Safety: 40/100 Carrum Downs — Safety: 21/100
Low fire risk 100 / 66
Patterson Lakes — Low fire risk: 100/100 Carrum Downs — Low fire risk: 66/100
Low flood risk 14 / 27
Patterson Lakes — Low flood risk: 14/100 Carrum Downs — Low flood risk: 27/100

Demographics

Carrum Downs has more residents (21,976 vs 7,793); Patterson Lakes skews older (46 vs 36).

Patterson Lakes Carrum Downs
Population 7,793 21,976
+182% vs other
Population trend (2016 → 2021) +3.0% +6.1%
Median age 46 36
Median household income $100,464/yr
+14% vs other
 $86,216/yr
Median weekly rent $430/wk
+14% vs other
 $370/wk

Age profile

Share of residents in each band, 2021 Census.

Patterson Lakes Carrum Downs
0-4 4.9% / 6.9%
Patterson Lakes — 0-4: 4.9% Carrum Downs — 0-4: 6.9%
5-14 11.0% / 12.3%
Patterson Lakes — 5-14: 11.0% Carrum Downs — 5-14: 12.3%
15-19 5.8% / 5.3%
Patterson Lakes — 15-19: 5.8% Carrum Downs — 15-19: 5.3%
20-24 4.9% / 6.0%
Patterson Lakes — 20-24: 4.9% Carrum Downs — 20-24: 6.0%
25-34 9.0% / 16.8%
Patterson Lakes — 25-34: 9.0% Carrum Downs — 25-34: 16.8%
35-44 11.7% / 14.6%
Patterson Lakes — 35-44: 11.7% Carrum Downs — 35-44: 14.6%
45-54 16.1% / 13.1%
Patterson Lakes — 45-54: 16.1% Carrum Downs — 45-54: 13.1%
55-64 15.1% / 11.6%
Patterson Lakes — 55-64: 15.1% Carrum Downs — 55-64: 11.6%
65-74 12.7% / 7.7%
Patterson Lakes — 65-74: 12.7% Carrum Downs — 65-74: 7.7%
75-84 6.4% / 3.8%
Patterson Lakes — 75-84: 6.4% Carrum Downs — 75-84: 3.8%
85+ 2.4% / 1.9%
Patterson Lakes — 85+: 2.4% Carrum Downs — 85+: 1.9%

Bars are drawn against the largest share shown (16.8%).

Who lives together

Household composition, 2021 Census.

Patterson Lakes 45.4% couple families
Patterson Lakes — Couple Families: 45.4% Patterson Lakes — Lone Person: 36.2% Patterson Lakes — One Parent Families: 15.8% Patterson Lakes — Group Household: 2.1% Patterson Lakes — Other Families: 0.5%
Carrum Downs 40.2% couple families
Carrum Downs — Couple Families: 40.2% Carrum Downs — Lone Person: 34.1% Carrum Downs — One Parent Families: 20.2% Carrum Downs — Group Household: 3.9% Carrum Downs — Other Families: 1.6%
Couple Families Lone Person One Parent Families Group Household Other Families

Who owns and who rents

Occupied private dwellings by tenure, 2021 Census.

Patterson Lakes 16.0% renting
Patterson Lakes — Owned Outright: 40.8% Patterson Lakes — Mortgage: 43.3% Patterson Lakes — Renting: 16.0%
Carrum Downs 28.1% renting
Carrum Downs — Owned Outright: 22.9% Carrum Downs — Mortgage: 49.0% Carrum Downs — Renting: 28.1%
Owned outright Mortgage Renting

Qualifications

Highest non-school qualification, residents 15+, 2021 Census.

Patterson Lakes Carrum Downs
Certificate III & IV 15.7% / 18.0%
Patterson Lakes — Certificate III & IV: 15.7% Carrum Downs — Certificate III & IV: 18.0%
Bachelor Degree 13.2% / 8.5%
Patterson Lakes — Bachelor Degree: 13.2% Carrum Downs — Bachelor Degree: 8.5%
Advanced Diploma / Diploma 9.3% / 8.3%
Patterson Lakes — Advanced Diploma / Diploma: 9.3% Carrum Downs — Advanced Diploma / Diploma: 8.3%
Postgraduate Degree 3.9% / 2.2%
Patterson Lakes — Postgraduate Degree: 3.9% Carrum Downs — Postgraduate Degree: 2.2%
Graduate Diploma / Certificate 2.2% / 1.3%
Patterson Lakes — Graduate Diploma / Certificate: 2.2% Carrum Downs — Graduate Diploma / Certificate: 1.3%

Bars are drawn against the largest share shown (18.0%).

Where residents were born

Largest overseas birthplaces, as a share of all residents, 2021 Census. A dash means that country is not among the suburb's own eight largest.

Patterson Lakes Carrum Downs
England 4.9% / 3.6%
Patterson Lakes — England: 4.9% Carrum Downs — England: 3.6%
New Zealand 1.7% / 2.7%
Patterson Lakes — New Zealand: 1.7% Carrum Downs — New Zealand: 2.7%
India 1.3% / 2.8%
Patterson Lakes — India: 1.3% Carrum Downs — India: 2.8%
China 2.5% / 0.7%
Patterson Lakes — China: 2.5% Carrum Downs — China: 0.7%
Philippines — / 2.1%
Patterson Lakes — Philippines: not among its largest Carrum Downs — Philippines: 2.1%
South Africa 0.9% / 0.6%
Patterson Lakes — South Africa: 0.9% Carrum Downs — South Africa: 0.6%
Sri Lanka — / 0.9%
Patterson Lakes — Sri Lanka: not among its largest Carrum Downs — Sri Lanka: 0.9%

Bars are drawn against the largest share shown (4.9%).

What people live in

Occupied private dwellings by structure, 2021 Census.

Patterson Lakes 59.9% houses
Patterson Lakes — Houses: 59.9% Patterson Lakes — Townhouses: 24.7% Patterson Lakes — Flats / Apartments: 15.4%
Carrum Downs 79.0% houses
Carrum Downs — Houses: 79.0% Carrum Downs — Townhouses: 19.6% Carrum Downs — Flats / Apartments: 1.4%
Houses Townhouses Flats / Apartments

Property market

Patterson Lakes Carrum Downs
Median house price $1,338,000 $786,000
Median unit price $675,000 $605,000
Median land price — $750,000
Typical days to sell (houses) 24 days
from 65 sales
 11 days
from 209 sales

Unit price by bedroom count

Only bed counts both suburbs published enough sales for. Sale counts are shown because the buckets differ in depth.

Patterson Lakes Carrum Downs
2 bed $635K / $550K
Patterson Lakes — 2 bed: $635K (25 sales) Carrum Downs — 2 bed: $550K (55 sales)

25 vs 55 sales

3 bed $734K / $645K
Patterson Lakes — 3 bed: $734K (13 sales) Carrum Downs — 3 bed: $645K (79 sales)

13 vs 79 sales

House price by bedroom count

Only bed counts both suburbs published enough sales for. Sale counts are shown because the buckets differ in depth.

Patterson Lakes Carrum Downs
3 bed $1.09M / $760K
Patterson Lakes — 3 bed: $1.09M (53 sales) Carrum Downs — 3 bed: $760K (342 sales)

53 vs 342 sales

4 bed $1.45M / $850K
Patterson Lakes — 4 bed: $1.45M (51 sales) Carrum Downs — 4 bed: $850K (137 sales)

51 vs 137 sales

5 bed $1.5M / $861K
Patterson Lakes — 5 bed: $1.5M (21 sales) Carrum Downs — 5 bed: $861K (11 sales)

21 vs 11 sales

Zoning mix

Carrum Downs has more industrially zoned land (14% vs 0%); Carrum Downs has more rural and farming land (14% vs 0%).

Patterson Lakes Carrum Downs
Residential 61% 33%
Infrastructure and transport 24% 31%
Industrial 0% 14%
Rural and farming 0% 14%
Parks and recreation 9% 7%
Other and special use 5% 0%
Commercial 1%
same for both
Zoning sets what may be built, not what is there today. A single address can sit in a different zone to the suburb around it. Zones as at 2026-09.

Development activity

Patterson Lakes Carrum Downs
New dwellings approved 465
across Kingston (Vic.)
 725
across Frankston
Approvals change year on year -36% -47%

Gross rental yield

Gross — before strata, rates, management, insurance and vacancy. From median advertised rents and median asking prices over the last 6 months. How we calculate.

Patterson Lakes Carrum Downs
Houses 3.9%
$1,200/wk on $1.6M
 4.3%
$630/wk on $760K
Units 4.7%
$620/wk on $679K
 4.5%
$560/wk on $642K

Ranking within VIC

Patterson Lakes Carrum Downs
House price Higher than 75% of VIC Higher than 53% of VIC
Income Higher than 73% of VIC Higher than 56% of VIC
Schools — Higher than 51% of VIC
Walkability Higher than 91% of VIC Higher than 88% of VIC
Affordability Higher than 29% of VIC Higher than 50% of VIC
EV adoption Higher than 80% of VIC Higher than 58% of VIC
NBN connectivity Higher than 94% of VIC Higher than 96% of VIC
Rental yield (houses) Higher than 61% of VIC Higher than 85% of VIC
Rental yield (units) Higher than 48% of VIC Higher than 34% of VIC

Liveability

Patterson Lakes scores higher overall (58 vs 37); Patterson Lakes is more walkable (74 vs 64).

Patterson Lakes Carrum Downs
Grade B C
Score 58/100 37/100
Socio-economic band very advantaged area
decile 9/10
 below-average income
decile 3/10

Risk profile

Carrum Downs carries more bushfire risk (34 vs 0); Carrum Downs carries more crime risk (79 vs 60).

Patterson Lakes Carrum Downs
Bushfire None
0/100
 Low
34/100
Crime Moderate
60/100
 High
79/100
Flood High
86/100
 High
73/100
Coastal erosion None
0/100
same for both
Aircraft noise None
0/100
same for both
Industrial facilities nearby 2
within 5 km
same for both

Schools

Patterson Lakes Carrum Downs
Inside the suburb 1 5
Rated above peers 0 1
Rated at peers 1 2
Rated below peers 0 1

Schools in Patterson Lakes

  • Patterson Lakes Primary School Government · Primary at peers

Schools in Carrum Downs

  • St Joachim's School Catholic · Primary above peers
  • Carrum Downs Secondary College Government · Secondary at peers
  • Rowellyn Park Primary School Government · Primary at peers
  • Banyan Fields Primary School Government · Primary below peers
  • Flinders Christian Community College - Carrum Downs Campus Independent · Combined

Amenities in the suburb

Patterson Lakes Carrum Downs
Supermarkets 2 4
Cafes & restaurants 2 14
Parks & reserves 8 25
Childcare 3 20
GPs 2 10
Pharmacies 1 4
Banks & Bank@Post 1 2
Fuel stations 2 7
EV chargers 0 1
Waterways 4 9

Mobility

Patterson Lakes Carrum Downs
Walkability score 74/100 64/100
Distance to Melbourne 46.7 km 47.3 km
+1% vs other
Drive time (normal traffic) 42 min 43 min
Public transport score 77/100
Bus
 79/100
Bus
Peak arrivals per hour 43.8
7-9am + 5-7pm
 333.5
7-9am + 5-7pm
Median peak wait 1 min
scheduled, not actual
 0 min
scheduled, not actual
Electric vehicle share 1.1%
postcode 3197
 0.6%
postcode 3201
Rooftop solar per 100 dwellings 29
postcode 3197
 39
postcode 3201

How people get to work

Method of travel on census day 2021 — which fell during COVID restrictions, so working from home is inflated and every travel mode understated.

Patterson Lakes Carrum Downs
Car (driver) 64.0% / 75.3%
Patterson Lakes — Car (driver): 64.0% Carrum Downs — Car (driver): 75.3%
Worked from Home 28.7% / 16.8%
Patterson Lakes — Worked from Home: 28.7% Carrum Downs — Worked from Home: 16.8%
Car (passenger) 3.5% / 4.6%
Patterson Lakes — Car (passenger): 3.5% Carrum Downs — Car (passenger): 4.6%
Train 1.7% / 1.2%
Patterson Lakes — Train: 1.7% Carrum Downs — Train: 1.2%
Walked Only 1.0% / 1.0%
Patterson Lakes — Walked Only: 1.0% Carrum Downs — Walked Only: 1.0%

Bars are drawn against the largest share shown (75.3%).

Setting

Patterson Lakes Carrum Downs
Elevation 6 m
above sea level, at the suburb centre
 19 m
above sea level, at the suburb centre
Distance to the ocean 2.0 km
2.2 km to a named beach
 4.5 km
4.6 km to a named beach

NBN connectivity

Patterson Lakes Carrum Downs
Connectivity score 87/100 90/100
Most common technology Fibre to the curb Fibre to the premises
Full-fibre (FTTP) share 39%
3,612 premises
 53%
11,873 premises

Climate

Patterson Lakes Carrum Downs
Annual rainfall —
same for both
Summer max (Jan) 24.5°C
same for both
Winter min (Jul) 8.3°C
same for both

Air quality (annual mean)

Patterson Lakes Carrum Downs
PM2.5 6.3 µg/m³
same for both
PM10 20.8 µg/m³
same for both
NO₂ 0.98 pphm
same for both

Council rates

Patterson Lakes Carrum Downs
Average residential rate $1,940/yr $1,795/yr
Council Kingston (Vic.) Frankston

Federal electorate

Patterson Lakes Carrum Downs
Division Dunkley
same for both
Member Jodie Belyea
same for both
Party Australian Labor Party
same for both

First Home Owner Grant

Patterson Lakes Carrum Downs
Grant amount $10,000
same for both
Property price cap $750,000
same for both
Eligibility New
same for both

Tags

Patterson Lakes

Coastal Outer Parks Premium River Townhouses

Carrum Downs

Outer

More comparisons

Other comparisons with Patterson Lakes

Patterson Lakes vs Seaford Patterson Lakes vs Bonbeach Patterson Lakes vs Chelsea Heights Patterson Lakes vs Carrum Patterson Lakes vs Bangholme

Other comparisons with Carrum Downs

Carrum Downs vs Langwarrin Carrum Downs vs Seaford Carrum Downs vs Lyndhurst Carrum Downs vs Skye Carrum Downs vs Frankston North Carrum Downs vs Sandhurst
Full data on Patterson Lakes Full data on Carrum Downs
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Information shown is provided as-is from Australian government and commercial data sources.
Always verify with the relevant authority before making property decisions.
See Data Sources and How We Calculate for details.

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