Lucas vs Winter Valley

Winter Valley is the younger of the two, with a median age of 29 against 32 in Lucas. In both, most households own their home, the large majority of homes are detached houses, and about half of households are couple families.

Which one suits you?

There is no overall winner — the suburb that suits a family with school-age kids is routinely the wrong one for someone commuting into the city. So each of these answers its own question, against a checklist you can see, using the same figures in the tables below.

Families with school-age kids

They split

one each way, out of the 6 things we measure here

  • Lucas carries lower crime risk (70/100 vs 91/100)
  • Winter Valley has more parks and reserves (4 vs 1)

Weighs schools, house stock, crime, parks, childcare, and who already lives there.

First-home buyers

Winter Valley

ahead on the one thing that separates them

  • has cheaper land ($285,000 vs $335,000)

Weighs house prices, land prices, and mortgage stress.

Renters

Lucas

ahead on the one thing that separates them

  • has a bigger rental market to choose from (35% vs 25%)

Weighs rent, rental stress, and how much is for rent.

Commuting to the city

They split

one each way, out of the 4 things we measure here

  • Lucas is more walkable (22/100 vs 11/100)
  • Winter Valley sits closer to the CBD (122 km vs 128.3 km)

Weighs distance, drive time, rail access, and walkability.

Downsizers and retirees

Lucas

ahead on 2 of the 5 things we measure here

  • is more walkable (22/100 vs 11/100)
  • carries lower crime risk (70/100 vs 91/100)

Weighs smaller dwellings, who already lives there, GPs, walkability, and crime.

Investors

Winter Valley

ahead on the one thing that separates them

  • returns a higher gross yield on houses (3.9% vs 3.4%)

Weighs house yield.

Where they sit

Lucas and Winter Valley drawn to the same scale. Both outlines are shown together, so the map answers whether they share a border and how their areas compare.

Lucas Winter Valley
Hides rows where both suburbs match

Bars start at zero. Scores, risks and rankings are drawn against their full 0–100 range; other rows are drawn in proportion to the larger of the two.

Side by side, out of 100

Risks are inverted — shown as safety and low exposure — so a longer bar always means better.

Lucas Winter Valley
Walkability 22 / 11
Lucas — Walkability: 22/100 Winter Valley — Walkability: 11/100
Safety 30 / 9
Lucas — Safety: 30/100 Winter Valley — Safety: 9/100
Low fire risk 100 / 100
Lucas — Low fire risk: 100/100 Winter Valley — Low fire risk: 100/100
Low flood risk 64 / 100
Lucas — Low flood risk: 64/100 Winter Valley — Low flood risk: 100/100

Demographics

Lucas skews older (32 vs 29).

Lucas Winter Valley
Population 2,994 3,440
+15% vs other
Population trend (2016 → 2021) —
same for both
Median age 32 29
Median household income $101,712/yr $104,676/yr
+3% vs other
Median weekly rent $380/wk $390/wk
+3% vs other

Age profile

Share of residents in each band, 2021 Census.

Lucas Winter Valley
0-4 9.9% / 10.1%
Lucas — 0-4: 9.9% Winter Valley — 0-4: 10.1%
5-14 15.7% / 16.0%
Lucas — 5-14: 15.7% Winter Valley — 5-14: 16.0%
15-19 5.9% / 4.8%
Lucas — 15-19: 5.9% Winter Valley — 15-19: 4.8%
20-24 7.1% / 7.8%
Lucas — 20-24: 7.1% Winter Valley — 20-24: 7.8%
25-34 16.6% / 23.4%
Lucas — 25-34: 16.6% Winter Valley — 25-34: 23.4%
35-44 16.3% / 14.1%
Lucas — 35-44: 16.3% Winter Valley — 35-44: 14.1%
45-54 10.3% / 9.8%
Lucas — 45-54: 10.3% Winter Valley — 45-54: 9.8%
55-64 6.5% / 7.1%
Lucas — 55-64: 6.5% Winter Valley — 55-64: 7.1%
65-74 6.8% / 4.6%
Lucas — 65-74: 6.8% Winter Valley — 65-74: 4.6%
75-84 4.0% / 2.2%
Lucas — 75-84: 4.0% Winter Valley — 75-84: 2.2%
85+ 0.7% / 0.4%
Lucas — 85+: 0.7% Winter Valley — 85+: 0.4%

Bars are drawn against the largest share shown (23.4%).

Who lives together

Household composition, 2021 Census.

Lucas 50.5% couple families
Lucas — Couple Families: 50.5% Lucas — Lone Person: 26.8% Lucas — One Parent Families: 16.4% Lucas — Group Household: 5.1% Lucas — Other Families: 1.1%
Winter Valley 54.3% couple families
Winter Valley — Couple Families: 54.3% Winter Valley — Lone Person: 21.8% Winter Valley — One Parent Families: 15.8% Winter Valley — Group Household: 6.0% Winter Valley — Other Families: 2.1%
Couple Families Lone Person One Parent Families Group Household Other Families

Who owns and who rents

Occupied private dwellings by tenure, 2021 Census.

Lucas 34.8% renting
Lucas — Owned Outright: 21.7% Lucas — Mortgage: 43.5% Lucas — Renting: 34.8%
Winter Valley 24.6% renting
Winter Valley — Owned Outright: 16.9% Winter Valley — Mortgage: 58.5% Winter Valley — Renting: 24.6%
Owned outright Mortgage Renting

Where residents were born

Largest overseas birthplaces, as a share of all residents, 2021 Census. A dash means that country is not among the suburb's own eight largest.

Lucas Winter Valley
India 6.4% / 3.3%
Lucas — India: 6.4% Winter Valley — India: 3.3%
England 2.6% / 0.9%
Lucas — England: 2.6% Winter Valley — England: 0.9%
China 1.6% / 0.7%
Lucas — China: 1.6% Winter Valley — China: 0.7%
Philippines 1.3% / 0.9%
Lucas — Philippines: 1.3% Winter Valley — Philippines: 0.9%
New Zealand 1.2% / 0.7%
Lucas — New Zealand: 1.2% Winter Valley — New Zealand: 0.7%

Bars are drawn against the largest share shown (6.4%).

Qualifications

Highest non-school qualification, residents 15+, 2021 Census.

Lucas Winter Valley
Certificate III & IV 14.0% / 18.1%
Lucas — Certificate III & IV: 14.0% Winter Valley — Certificate III & IV: 18.1%
Bachelor Degree 14.3% / 11.8%
Lucas — Bachelor Degree: 14.3% Winter Valley — Bachelor Degree: 11.8%
Advanced Diploma / Diploma 7.9% / 7.9%
Lucas — Advanced Diploma / Diploma: 7.9% Winter Valley — Advanced Diploma / Diploma: 7.9%
Postgraduate Degree 5.8% / 2.8%
Lucas — Postgraduate Degree: 5.8% Winter Valley — Postgraduate Degree: 2.8%
Graduate Diploma / Certificate 2.5% / 1.6%
Lucas — Graduate Diploma / Certificate: 2.5% Winter Valley — Graduate Diploma / Certificate: 1.6%

Bars are drawn against the largest share shown (18.1%).

What people live in

Occupied private dwellings by structure, 2021 Census.

Lucas 97.1% houses
Lucas — Houses: 97.1% Lucas — Townhouses: 2.3% Lucas — Flats / Apartments: 0.7%
Winter Valley 99.1% houses
Winter Valley — Houses: 99.1% Winter Valley — Townhouses: 0.0% Winter Valley — Flats / Apartments: 0.9%
Houses Townhouses Flats / Apartments

Property market

Lucas Winter Valley
Median house price $644,000 $630,000
Median unit price —
same for both
Median land price $335,000 $285,000
Typical days to sell (houses) 45 days
from 124 sales
 41 days
from 118 sales

House price by bedroom count

Only bed counts both suburbs published enough sales for. Sale counts are shown because the buckets differ in depth.

Lucas Winter Valley
3 bed $622K / $552K
Lucas — 3 bed: $622K (82 sales) Winter Valley — 3 bed: $552K (30 sales)

82 vs 30 sales

4 bed $652K / $638K
Lucas — 4 bed: $652K (272 sales) Winter Valley — 4 bed: $638K (146 sales)

272 vs 146 sales

Zoning mix

Lucas Winter Valley
Residential 99% 98%
Infrastructure and transport 1% 2%
Zoning sets what may be built, not what is there today. A single address can sit in a different zone to the suburb around it. Zones as at 2026-09.

Development activity

Lucas Winter Valley
New dwellings approved 1,451
across Ballarat
same for both
Approvals change year on year +42%
same for both

Gross rental yield

Gross — before strata, rates, management, insurance and vacancy. From median advertised rents and median asking prices over the last 6 months. How we calculate.

Lucas Winter Valley
Houses 3.4%
$500/wk on $762K
 3.9%
$490/wk on $658K
Units —
same for both

Ranking within VIC

Lucas Winter Valley
House price Higher than 29% of VIC Higher than 23% of VIC
Income Higher than 74% of VIC Higher than 77% of VIC
Schools —
same for both
Walkability Higher than 80% of VIC Higher than 74% of VIC
Affordability Higher than 92% of VIC Higher than 96% of VIC
EV adoption Higher than 73% of VIC Higher than 44% of VIC
NBN connectivity Higher than 100% of VIC Higher than 98% of VIC
Rental yield (houses) Higher than 32% of VIC Higher than 60% of VIC

Liveability

Lucas is more walkable (22 vs 11).

Lucas Winter Valley
Grade B
same for both
Score 55/100 53/100
Socio-economic band advantaged area
decile 7/10
 mid-range socio-economic
decile 6/10

Risk profile

Lucas carries more flood risk (36 vs 0); Winter Valley carries more crime risk (91 vs 70).

Lucas Winter Valley
Bushfire None
0/100
same for both
Crime High
70/100
 High
91/100
Flood Low
36/100
 None
0/100
Coastal erosion None
0/100
same for both
Aircraft noise None
0/100
same for both
Industrial facilities nearby 5
within 5 km
 6
within 5 km

Schools

Lucas Winter Valley
Inside the suburb 0
same for both
Rated above peers 0
same for both
Rated at peers 0
same for both
Rated below peers 0
same for both
Universities within 10 km 1
Federation University Ballarat, 7.2 km
 1
Federation University Ballarat, 5.4 km
Full-time students aged 15–24 1.9% 2.2%

Schools in Lucas

  • Lucas Primary School Government · Primary at peers
  • Siena Catholic Primary School Catholic · Primary below peers

Schools in Winter Valley

No schools recorded inside this suburb's boundary. Children here will be zoned to schools nearby.

Amenities in the suburb

Lucas Winter Valley
Supermarkets 1 0
Cafes & restaurants 2 0
Parks & reserves 1 4
Childcare 5 3
GPs 2 1
Pharmacies 1 0
Police stations 0 1
Banks & Bank@Post 1 0
Fuel stations 1 3
EV chargers 1 0
Waterways 0 2

Mobility

Lucas sits further from the CBD (128.3 km vs 122 km).

Lucas Winter Valley
Walkability score 22/100 11/100
Distance to Melbourne 128.3 km
+5% vs other
 122 km
Drive time (normal traffic) 93 min 96 min
Public transport score 42/100 34/100
Peak arrivals per hour 8.0
7-9am + 5-7pm
 4.5
7-9am + 5-7pm
Median peak wait 2 min
scheduled, not actual
 1 min
scheduled, not actual
Electric vehicle share 0.9%
postcode 3350
 0.5%
postcode 3358
Rooftop solar per 100 dwellings 30
postcode 3350
 47
postcode 3358

How people get to work

Method of travel on census day 2021 — which fell during COVID restrictions, so working from home is inflated and every travel mode understated.

Lucas Winter Valley
Car (driver) 75.9% / 79.9%
Lucas — Car (driver): 75.9% Winter Valley — Car (driver): 79.9%
Worked from Home 17.5% / 13.3%
Lucas — Worked from Home: 17.5% Winter Valley — Worked from Home: 13.3%
Car (passenger) 4.6% / 5.2%
Lucas — Car (passenger): 4.6% Winter Valley — Car (passenger): 5.2%
Walked Only 0.8% / 1.1%
Lucas — Walked Only: 0.8% Winter Valley — Walked Only: 1.1%
Train 1.0% / 0.2%
Lucas — Train: 1.0% Winter Valley — Train: 0.2%
Bus — / 0.4%
Lucas — Bus: not among its largest Winter Valley — Bus: 0.4%

Bars are drawn against the largest share shown (79.9%).

Setting

Lucas Winter Valley
Elevation 432 m
above sea level, at the suburb centre
 430 m
above sea level, at the suburb centre

NBN connectivity

Lucas Winter Valley
Connectivity score 100/100 98/100
Most common technology Fibre to the premises
same for both
Full-fibre (FTTP) share 99%
2,144 premises
 96%
3,476 premises

Climate

Lucas Winter Valley
Annual rainfall 605 mm
same for both
Summer max (Jan) 25.7°C
same for both
Winter min (Jul) 3.5°C
same for both

Council rates

Lucas Winter Valley
Average residential rate $2,086/yr
same for both
Council Ballarat
same for both

Federal electorate

Lucas Winter Valley
Division Ballarat
same for both
Member Catherine King
same for both
Party Australian Labor Party
same for both

First Home Owner Grant

Lucas Winter Valley
Grant amount $10,000
same for both
Property price cap $750,000
same for both
Eligibility New
same for both

Tags

Lucas

Family Large Blocks Young Families

Winter Valley

Family Large Blocks Young Families

More comparisons

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Full data on Lucas Full data on Winter Valley
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Information shown is provided as-is from Australian government and commercial data sources.
Always verify with the relevant authority before making property decisions.
See Data Sources and How We Calculate for details.

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